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U.S. Radar · November 2026

The U.S. economy grew 3.4% in the third quarter. Two Fed votes already called for higher rates.

U.S. demand accelerated, inflation by the Fed's preferred measure reached 3.6% and the Fed held rates with two dissents in favor of an increase. In Brazil, the presidential race is settled and the tariff talks wait for a U.S. proposal. What it means for companies selling to, or planning to operate in, the U.S.

5-minute readPublished November 1, 2026

By the Marroffino & Partners team of specialists

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3.4%

annualized growth of U.S. real GDP in the third quarter of 2026, up from 2.2% in the second

BEA, Oct 29, 2026

3.6%

PCE inflation over the 12 months to September; 3.1% excluding food and energy

BEA, Oct 29, 2026

10–2

Fed vote to hold rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28; both dissents favored an increase

Federal Reserve

+31.1%

WEG revenue in North America in the third quarter, to US$722.8 million, led by grid transformers and data center generators

WEG, Q3 2026 results

Strong demand, expensive money

The U.S. economy grew at an annualized 3.4% between July and September, with consumers, business investment and government all expanding. Final sales to private domestic buyers, a cleaner measure of underlying demand, rose 4.9%. For anyone selling into the U.S., the market is not slowing.

The cost is on the price side. The PCE index, the Fed's reference, rose 3.6% over 12 months in September. The Fed held its rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, but two members voted for an increase, and futures markets now see a December hike as likely. Strong demand and expensive money is the scenario to plan for in 2027.

Exhibit 1

U.S. growth and inflation: latest readings (%)

Source: BEA, GDP advance estimate for Q3 2026 and Personal Income and Outlays for September 2026 (Oct 29, 2026); BLS, CPI for September 2026 (Oct 14, 2026). Growth rates are annualized; private demand is real final sales to private domestic purchasers.

The news that matters

Selected from official releases and the economic press, with our specialists' reading of what each one means.

Growth · U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Oct 29, 2026

U.S. GDP accelerates to 3.4% in the third quarter

Real GDP grew at an annualized 3.4%, up from 2.2% in the second quarter, driven by investment, consumer spending and government. Exports fell, led by petroleum products.

Our readingDemand in the U.S. remains broad. The question for Brazilian suppliers is less whether there are buyers and more at what margin they can be served.

Read the source

Interest rates · Federal Reserve · Oct 28, 2026

The Fed holds rates, with two votes for an increase

The target range stayed at 3.75% to 4.00% by a 10–2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack preferred a quarter-point increase. The statement describes activity as strong and inflation as elevated.

Our readingThe next move is more likely up than down. Credit lines and leases for a U.S. operation should be priced on that assumption.

Read the source

Inflation · U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Oct 29, 2026

The Fed's preferred inflation measure reaches 3.6%

The PCE price index rose 0.5% in September and 3.6% over 12 months; excluding food and energy, the increase was 3.1%. Nominal consumer spending rose 0.5%, but in real terms it was nearly flat.

Our readingConsumers are spending more to buy roughly the same. There is room to pass on costs, but volume gains will be harder to come by.

Read the source

Trade policy · SBT News · Oct 8, 2026

With the election settled, Brazil awaits a U.S. tariff proposal in November

Trade Minister Márcio Elias Rosa said Washington committed to presenting a formal proposal, which could lead to a working group. President Lula was re-elected on October 25 with 51.79% of valid votes, removing the election as a variable in the talks.

Our readingA proposal is a starting point, not relief. Until a text is signed, the current tariff remains the base case for 2027.

Read the source

Energy and data centers · Times Brasil · Oct 21, 2026

WEG grows 31.1% in North America on grid and data center demand

North American revenue reached US$722.8 million in the third quarter, driven by transformers for the U.S. grid and Marathon generators used as backup power in data centers. Foreign markets reached a record 62.5% of revenue; the company cited U.S. tariffs and copper among the pressures on margin.

Our readingU.S. infrastructure demand rewards those with local capacity. Even then, tariffs on inputs show up in the margin.

Read the source

Three decisions for this month

  1. Read U.S. growth as an opportunity in demand, not in price: plan volume with costs rising faster than in Brazil.
  2. Treat the U.S. proposal on tariffs as the start of a negotiation and keep the current tariff in the 2027 budget.
  3. In energy, grid and data center supply chains, assess whether local capacity is now a condition for winning contracts.

With demand strong and money expensive, does your U.S. plan still hold for 2027? We answer that with numbers.

Speak with a partner about demand, cost of capital and the routes open to your operation.

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About this article

Prepared by the Marroffino & Partners team of specialists in strategy and U.S. market entry.

To discuss these findings for your company, write to us or book a conversation with a partner.

contact@marroffino.com

Methodology and sources

This edition is for information only and reflects public data available on its publication date. It is not legal, customs, tax or investment advice.