Q1 2026
2.5%
Revised up in the BEA annual update.
U.S. economy · Article
The U.S. economy grows 2.2% with 3.7% inflation: where the demand your company can capture is
GDP keeps growing above 2%, hiring has slowed, inflation is rising again and the Fed has resumed rate increases. We bring the indicators that matter into an interactive dashboard and show what they mean for companies selling to, or planning to operate in, the U.S.
2.2%
annualized real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026, after 2.5% in the first
BEA, Sep 2026
3.7%
consumer inflation over the 12 months to September 2026
BLS, Oct 2026
4.2%
unemployment rate in September 2026; payrolls grew by only 29,000
BLS, Oct 2026
3.75–4.00%
federal funds target range since September 16; next decision on October 28
Federal Reserve
Executive summary
- Growth is holding. Real GDP grew at annualized rates of 2.5% in the first quarter and 2.2% in the second, with consumer spending, investment and exports rising.
- Inflation is back. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September 2026, against 3.0% a year earlier, and in September the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023.
- Hiring has slowed. The economy added only 29,000 jobs in September, and unemployment rose to 4.2%, within the 4.1% to 4.3% range seen since March.
- Demand is shifting. Consumer spending grew 5.3% in 2025, led by Florida (+7.0%), and five Southern states accounted for about half of the country's population growth.
Growth above 2%, with swings
Annualized real GDP growth has ranged from 0.1% to 4.0% a quarter since the start of 2025. In 2026, the first half posted 2.5% and 2.2%, with consumer spending, investment and exports supporting the expansion.
Our reading: growth above 2% in an economy of this size means relevant new demand every year, especially in services, infrastructure and consumption.
Exhibit 1
U.S. real GDP, quarterly change at an annual rate (%)
Source: BEA, via FRED (series A191RL1Q225SBEA), through Q2 2026 (third estimate, Sep 30, 2026).
Q2 2026
2.2%
Third estimate, above the initial 1.5%.
Income
2.6%
Real gross domestic income growth in the second quarter.
Inflation up, rates up
Consumer inflation, close to 2.4% in early 2026, reached 3.7% in September. In response, the Fed raised its policy rate to a 3.75% to 4.00% range, and the minutes point to a possible further increase by year end. Hiring, meanwhile, has slowed.
For companies financing a U.S. operation, money now costs more; for those selling, there is room to pass on prices, to customers who are more price-sensitive.
Exhibit 2
Consumer inflation and the Fed policy rate (%)
Source: BLS (CPI-U, seasonally adjusted, 12-month change calculated by Marroffino & Partners) and Federal Reserve, via FRED. October 2025 CPI was not published.
Exhibit 3
U.S. unemployment rate (%)
Source: BLS, via FRED (series UNRATE). October 2025 was not published.
Where demand is growing
Consumer spending grew 5.3% in 2025 in current dollars and rose in every state. Florida led with 7.0%; California was at the other end, with 4.2%.
Population is moving too: Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia and South Carolina added about 912,000 residents between 2024 and 2025, half of the country's growth.
Exhibit 4
Growth in consumer spending (PCE) in 2025, current dollars (%)
Source: BEA, PCE by state 2025 (Sep 30, 2026).
Population
~912,000
New residents in Texas, Florida, the Carolinas and Georgia in 2025.
Immigration
178,674
Net international migration to Florida, the highest of any state.
Income
+4.7%
Annualized growth in personal income in the second quarter of 2026.
What the dashboard means for your company
Three readings by our specialists.
Demand
A large market, fierce competition
Growth above 2% in an economy this size creates new demand every year, but the fight for customers is hard and requires a clear value proposition.
Rates
More expensive capital
With rates rising, projects financed in the U.S. need higher returns. Test rate scenarios before investing.
Inflation
Rising local costs
Wages, rents and services rise with inflation. The cost advantage of producing in Brazil can widen, if the tariff allows.
What to do now
- Test your entry plan with higher U.S. rates for longer.
- Prioritize states and segments where consumption and population grow above average.
- Review dollar prices and contracts with U.S. inflation above 3%.
Is this the right moment for your company to enter the U.S.? We answer with numbers.
Speak with a partner about market, timing and entry model.
About this article
Prepared by the Marroffino & Partners team of specialists in strategy and U.S. market entry.
To discuss these findings for your company, write to us or book a conversation with a partner.
Methodology and sources
Figures come from the BEA, the BLS, the Federal Reserve and the Census Bureau, through FRED where noted, checked on October 23, 2026.
- BEA: GDP (third estimate), 2nd quarter 2026; state PCE 2025 (Sep 30, 2026)
- BLS: Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (Oct 14, 2026)
- BLS: The Employment Situation, September 2026 (Oct 2, 2026)
- Federal Reserve: FOMC statement (Sep 16, 2026)
- Federal Reserve: minutes of the September 15–16, 2026 meeting
- FRED: A191RL1Q225SBEA, CPIAUCSL, UNRATE and DFEDTARU series
- U.S. Census Bureau: Vintage 2025 population estimates (Jan 27, 2026)
This article is for information only and reflects public data available on October 23, 2026. It is not legal, customs, tax or investment advice. Projections are shown as published by their sources.