U.S. Radar · October 2026
The jump came almost entirely from prices, on a base weakened by the 2025 surcharges. Year to date, sales to the U.S. are down 6.5%, U.S. rates are rising again and Brazil has topped up credit for exporters. What it means for companies selling to, or planning to operate in, the U.S.
exports to the U.S. in September 2026 against September 2025, to US$3.5 billion
Amcham Brasil, from Comexstat
growth in volume shipped in the same comparison; average prices rose 28%
Amcham Brasil, from Comexstat
U.S. consumer inflation over the 12 months to September; 2.6% excluding food and energy
BLS, Oct 14, 2026
federal funds target range after the September 16 increase; next decision on October 28
Federal Reserve
In September, Brazilian exports to the U.S. reached US$3.5 billion, up 31.9% on the same month of 2025. The volume shipped, however, grew only 3.1%; the average price rose 28%. The comparison also helps: in September 2025, with surcharges of up to 50% in force, sales to the U.S. had fallen 20.3%.
Year to date the picture is different. From January to September, exports to the U.S. totaled US$27.5 billion, down 6.5%. Goods under the 25% to 37.5% surcharges fell 25.4%, about US$1.4 billion less, while Brazilian manufacturing sales to other markets grew 6.3%.
Exhibit 1
Source: Amcham Brasil, Brazil–U.S. Trade Monitor, from Comexstat (Oct 2026). Surcharged goods: those subject to the Section 301 tariffs.
Selected from official releases and the economic press, with our specialists' reading of what each one means.
Interest rates · Federal Reserve · Sep 16, 2026
The U.S. policy rate moved to a 3.75% to 4.00% range by unanimous vote. The minutes show most officials see another increase as likely appropriate by year end.
Our readingFinancing a U.S. operation has become more expensive. Projects planned for 2027 should be tested against higher rates for longer.
Read the sourceInflation · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Oct 14, 2026
Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% over the year; excluding food and energy, the increase was 2.6%.
Our readingRising prices open room to negotiate increases with U.S. customers, but they also push up wages, rents and services for anyone operating locally.
Read the sourceTrade · Amcham Brasil · Oct 13, 2026
Exports to the U.S. totaled US$27.5 billion from January to September. Agricultural sales to the U.S. fell 17.8% and extractive sales 32%, while both grew in other markets.
Our readingPart of Brazilian supply is already moving to other destinations. Companies that stay in the U.S. must decide whether to defend share through price, local production or another route.
Read the sourceTrade policy · Reuters · Oct 9, 2026
The two countries set up a working group in September to discuss tariffs and a broader trade framework. U.S. access to Brazilian critical minerals and rare earths has become a central issue. The October 25 presidential runoff is expected to shape the pace of the talks.
Our readingAny tariff relief depends on negotiation and has no date. Planning 2027 with the current tariff as the base case is the prudent stance.
Read the sourceCredit · Contábeis · Oct 21, 2026
Provisional Measure 1,397 opened R$6.49 billion in extraordinary credit for the Export Guarantee Fund under the Brasil Soberano plan, covering exporters of goods and services and their suppliers.
Our readingFor companies hit by the tariff, these lines can fund working capital and the adaptation of products and processes while the route to the U.S. is redefined.
Read the sourceInvestment · O Tempo · Oct 22, 2026
The Minas Gerais power equipment maker announced more than R$1.1 billion in expansion, including US$25 million for its first U.S. plant, in Eden, North Carolina, which starts operating gradually in the fourth quarter.
Our readingProducing close to the U.S. customer protects margins from the tariff and brings the company closer to demand from the U.S. power grid.
Read the sourceSpeak with a partner about exposure, margin and the routes open to your operation.
About this article
Prepared by the Marroffino & Partners team of specialists in strategy and U.S. market entry.
To discuss these findings for your company, write to us or book a conversation with a partner.
Methodology and sources
This edition is for information only and reflects public data available on its publication date. It is not legal, customs, tax or investment advice.